Sunday, March 14, 2010

West Region Preview (Rds. 1+2)



Most Intriguing Matchup
 #7 BYU vs. #10 Florida
-Should Florida even be in the tournament? That's debatable in itself. But they are, and they have a date with the BYU Cougars out of the Mountain West Conference. Florida is making their first trip back to the NCAA's in 3 years since winning back-to-back titles. BYU hasn't won a NCAA tournament game in their last 7 tries. They were a very strong team in the surprisingly tough MWC. This should be a good game, and I think BYU finally gets that win they've been looking for.

Upset Alerts
 #5 Butler vs. #12 UTEP
-Here's that #5 vs. #12 matchup that always produces upsets. Butler finished off a perfect season in the Horizon with a win over Wright State in the tournament championship. UTEP stumbled in the C-USA championship against Houston, bu still had a great season finishing 26-6. Butler played a fairly strong non-conference with games against Georgetown and Clemson among a couple others. The problem was, they didn't win any of them. They haven't faced any kind of test in the Horizon and UTEP might be a little underseeded at #12. I think Butler escapes here, but this should be a very good game that comes down to the very end.

 #4 Vanderbilt vs. #13 Murray State
-Uh oh. Vanderbilt is a #4 seed again. Two years ago they were a #4 and got their clocks cleaned by Siena in the first round. This is a good Vanderbilt team with a strong resume. They finished 12-4 in the SEC and played Kentucky hard twice. They also had some quality non-conference wins to go along with that. Murray State is definitely underseeded as a #13, and is a VERY scary team. They're extremely balanced and have 5 players who average in double figures. Vanderbilt has been good enough to beat teams they're supposed to, but have come up short in big games that they have had. This is going to be one of my sexy upset picks of the tournament as I see Murray State taking this game down, but not in the fashion that Siena did 2 years ago. This should be a close one, and Murray State is good enough to pull it out.

 #7 BYU vs. #10 Florida
-(See above)

They Got A What Seed!?
 #8 Gonzaga
-Gonzaga is underseeded here. There's no shame in losses to Duke, Michigan State, and even Wake Forest. They, as they have been known to do recently, played a very tough non-conference schedule that included in addition to Sparty and the Blue Devils, teams like Illinois, Cincinnati, and Wisconsin. They are battle tested, talented, and well coached, led by Mark Few. They should be able to handle Florida State and could pose HUGE problems for Syracuse in the second round.

 #6 Xavier
-Underseeded at a #6. I thought they had #4 seed potential, but that Atlantic-10 Conference Championship loss to Richmond probably didn't do them any favors. They'll be able to take care of a weak Minnesota team and set up a match with Pittsburgh that they have the talent to win. This is a strong team that was tested in some very close losses to Butler, Wake Forest, and Baylor. The Atlantic-10 was a tough conference too, and Xavier is a team that has made some tourney runs in recent years.

 #10 Florida
-Should they even be in the field of 65? That's a good question. They are the only team that ESPN's Joe Lunardi did not have in his bracket. As what I would consider one of the last two teams to get in, how did they manage a #10? How do they get in and Mississippi State does not? Maybe it's the reputation Florida has or maybe it's the star-power of Billy Donovan, but this is not a #10 seed.

Biggest Threat To The #1 Seed
 #2 Kansas State
-This is very, very good team that is extremely disciplined. Yes, I know they can't beat Kansas no matter how hard they try, but they've been challenged in a tough conference, and were probably a #1 seed until that hangover loss against Iowa State after that Kansas game. They pose the biggest threat to the Orange down the road, but Syracuse might not even get that far as Gonzaga has the talent and intangibles to not even let them into the Sweet 16.

Potential Cinderellas
 #8 Gonzaga
-(See above)

 #13 Murray State
-If Murray State can pull the upset against Vanderbilt which I think they can, they would have a very favorable second round matchup against either Butler or UTEP, both of whom are fellow mid-majors and will not significantly outsize or out-muscle the Racers. Get out of the first round, and the Sweet 16 is a real shot.

 #6 Xavier
-(See above)

Most Intriguing Potential 2nd Round Matchups
 #1 Syracuse vs. #8 Gonzaga
-All kinds of upset potential here. Gonzaga is a big time program and has been tested through a tough out of conference schedule. They have the size to match up with Syracuse and the talent to go along with it as well. Stopping Wesley Johnson will be key, and Syracuse is stumbling into the NCAA tourney after an early round exit in the Big East Tournament. This is another game that should come down right to the very end, and depending on what kind of form both of these teams are in, #1 might not be going to the Sweet 16.

 #6 Xavier vs. #3 Pittsburgh
-Very interesting matchup. Pitt has been known to come up short in tourneys, and Xavier has made many deep runs in the last decade. The A-10 was surprisingly tough this year and that should serve Xavier well. If this is what it comes down to, I see Xavier moving on.

Overall Thoughts:
From the outside this really looks like a 2 horse race, between Syracuse and Kansas State. I think that is the case here, with Gonzaga being the only one with the potential to throw a wrench into those plans. It is more than likely that we will see these two teams in a showdown for a trip to Indy.

Who's Going To Indianapolis?
 #2 Kansas State
-They are just too damn good, the losses to Kansas aside. They are tough, disciplined, and extremely talented. They have the team to take down a Syracuse team that looked very shaky last week in New York. This would set up an absolutely EPIC battle as Kansas and Kansas State would go to war for the 4th time this season. Could the 4th time be the charm for the Wildcats?

3 comments:

  1. Novas a much bigger threat to duke than kstate is to syracuse

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  2. liking the first posts tho

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  3. pitt is gonna beat kansas state.

    ReplyDelete